The Absence of Key Players
The analysis of this race requires consideration of the absence of numerous key athletes. Roughly half of the athletes we’ve come to expect at these races were absent from Abu Dhabi in both the men’s and women’s fields, including many of the women’s most prominent stars (Stimpson, Jenkins, Spirig, Stanford, Denshaw, Jackson). In some cases the absences are due to injuries while others simply decided not to take part in this race. One can only assume that they will progressively return to the circuit.
Auckland the right call for an athlete’s WTS debut?
While France’s Simon Viain had a strong showing (17th) in his debut WTS race, others were not quite as successful. An athlete’s first WTS race is a valuable learning experience in his or her’s development. For such an important stepping stone, however, one can wonder if Auckland is the right event. Perhaps it would be wiser to begin in a sprint distance triathlon?
Uncertainty when it comes to Auckland’s future on the circuit?
Rumours suggest that Auckland will not be part of the picture in 2016 because shutting down the downtown area is proving to have too big an impact on New Zealand’s capital city. Kitzbuhel, previously on the WTS circuit, would be a suitable replacement because of it’s course’s similarities. Otherwise, this could mean the end of climber friendly race courses. Des courses qui se jouent sur des détails?
Details are of the Utmost Importance
As we know, athletes leading the world rankings get to choose their position while lining up for the swim. In Auckland, Mola exercised this privilege for the first time in his career. Following the likes of the Brownlees and Gomez, he chose to ride the inside of the pack thus better controlling his environment. Indeed, Mola was well positioned between Knabl(AUT) and Quinchara (COL) while Gomez and Alistair Brownlee were in their usual positions on the left side of the pack. This is evidently not an exact science and the tactics regarding positioning during the swim warrant further investigations.
The women’s race took a different shape : the inside lane was were immediately occupied by the likes of Routier and Hall, who are amongst the stronger swimmers. The ones leading the world rankings chose the outside lanes. As shown in this picture, Jorgensen is flanked on the left side by 8 swimmers while Germany’s Haug (12) and Robisch (9) are positioned to her right.
Again, these different tactics go to show that different nations are trying all types of different strategies in order to gain an advantage over their rivals.
The advantages of choosing a center position in the pack are twofold : the line is more direct the draft a little stronger. During this race, Norden was placed two spots to the left of Jorgensen.
Great Britain’s Learmonth (55) took the lead and was joined by Lucy Hall.
Navigating the first buoy : a game changer for some
The general impression athletes have of the swim usually differs according to their ability. Stronger swimmers will usually refer to a comfortable swim while the weaker swimmers refer to hell underwater. The swim course will also play a role in this highly differential consensus.
Auckland is very interesting. In the women’s race, we witnessed a ‘controlled’ passage at the first buoy. The men’s race, however, was a different story.
This image illustrates this very clearly. We can see that in the women’s race, the stronger swimmers were able to quickly separate themselves while the men’s field is way more tightly packed. While some swimmers took the turn head-on, others had the foresight to take a wide line into the turn. Inevitably, some found themselves trapped in the process.
This means that the favorites in the men’s field were more likely to get trapped in this first turn. While some athletes are able to withstand shabby navigation due to their raw speed, the ones that don’t have the same ability in the water may see their whole race unravel following the confusion of the swim’s very first turn as anxiety and panic quickly follow for these athletes. The congestion at the first turn thinned out the pack a little bit, but it was still quite dense as they approached the second buoy.
We were finally able to spot Johnny Brownlee near the front of the pack. This will certainly go a long way for his confidence after having placed outside of the leading pack in the previous two races.
In the women’s field, while the second lap was slightly slower than the first (9:45-10:00), the pace still proved too fast for many as a separation was created in the pack. Carolina Routier finished strong taking over the lead and coming out of the water in her usual 1st position. A job well done for Routier who’s strong work in the water benefitted her teammates True and Zafares. As her cycling is not quite up to the level of her swimming, she was quickly dropped on the second leg of the race.
The men’s swim times were rather interesting. The negative split of the leading pack show that many were trapped in the congestion which characterized the start of the race. Fernando Alarza is no stranger to this as we regularly see him swimming a faster second lap. This shows a certain difficulty in the Spaniards ability to swim within the pack, a weakness that we expect will be addressed sooner rather than later.
The Olympic and Sprint Distances are two different beasts
Mola’s recent victory had many thinking his swimming had progressed. Judging by the times of the first lap, where he exited the water 24 seconds back of Gomez, he would have been on the outside looking in to make the first pack in a sprint distance triathlon. In an Olympic distance triathlon he finds himself 45 seconds back of the lead. This renders a return to the front pack nearly impossible if the leaders are collaborating with one another. We can conclude from this that Mola is still not in full control of his destiny in this matter. He would clearly benefit from the work of a domestique.
A Confidence Booster for Gomez and Jo Brownlee
We sense that the WTS’ elite triathletes are much the same as rebel adolescents : reactions only come once they’ve been caught. Auckland clearly showed Gomez and Jo Brownlee running in reaction to Mola’s most recent performance. In contrast to Abu Dhabi, they took matters in their own hands coming out of the water in the lead and working right through to the end of the bike. As long as they race like this they will remain the class of the field.
The Women’s Bike : An Elimination Game?
It hardly took two laps for the chase group to bridge the gap to the leaders. Lisa Norden was the main protagonist in this junction. It is to be noted however that the leading pack did not work in cohesion as Lucy Hall and Learmonth could not count on the help of the others. Katie Zaferes showed improvement in her technical skills while frequently taking the lead in the downhill sections of the course. Her hard work and dedication seems to be paying off.
The lead group downsized from 22 to 12 rides as the bike leg progressed. For some, the pace was simply too much to handle in the uphills. Others seemingly just don’t have the technical skills to maneuver the descents and many turns found on this course.
Is Jorgensen Showing Progression?
Her win in Auckland will surely be a confidence booster heading towards Rio in 2016. Times show us that her bike has improved. That said, we can’t forget that her most important rivals (Stimpson, Spirig, Stanford, Jenkins and Jackson) were absent from the field. The reality is that numbers show that her performance this year is a step back on what it took to win the same race in 2014.
We still haven’t seen an athlete capable of inflicting pain on others à la Jodie Stimpson. For this very reason, there is still doubt when it comes to Jorgensen’s ability to dominate with a truly stacked field of competitors. That said, she has shown that she is clearly less vulnerable than in years passed. We’ve seen many athletes dominate the sport for a short period of time (Snowsil, Findlay, Jenkins amongst others), but very few have been able to sustain it and follow it up with a medal at the Olympic Games.
Jorgensen On A Record Run of 7 Straight Wins
Stanford has announced her participation in Cape Town. We haven’t seen these two athletes go head to head since 2013, the year of Stanford’s World Title.
Masters of the Quick Start
As per usual, some athletes cycling abilities are a direct reflection of their swimming ability. Alarza came out of the water with a 20 second gap, the outer limit at which one can hope to rejoin the lead group on the bike. Alarza is no stranger to this situation and his strong first two laps (7:54, 8:04) allowed him to bridge the gap to the leaders. Ryan Bailie had a similar start to the bike with a first lap of 7:47.
Constant Work From Trimes’ G8
Here at Trimes, we are accustomed to designate 8 athletes who regularly come out of the water in the lead pack and play a lead role during the first lap of the bike to ensure a smaller leading group. In Auckland, however, we should refer to the G16, including unlikely protagonists such as Bishop, Van Riel, Knable, Azchaeus and Tayama. During the second lap, they lost 5 seconds to the chase group. Jo Brownlee reacted immediately, taking on the role of the ‘Don of the Peloton’ (usually occupied by his brother) and urging the group to pick up the pace.
Brownlee’s efforts proved fruitful some 30km into the bike leg as the chase group clearly lost confidence in their ability to bridge the gap. The lead pack gained 30 seconds in the last two laps, and the rest was history. Mola often tried to lead his group back in the race, something he did not have to do in Abu Dhabi.
Exactly How Useful Is Graves?
Philip Graves was unable to make the first pack out of the swim. Being in the chase group on the bike run, he would end up helping Bownlee’s rivals in their attempt to catch the leaders. Graves is clearly not yet master of his destiny. In fact, he showed during the 5th lap that he is very capable of bridging a considerable gap on his own and clearly stronger than the average on the bike. He abandoned the race after the first lap of the run and in consequence scored no Olympic points.
Is Mola Vulnerable?
A top 6 was seemingly still possible coming off the bike, but Mola did not give us his signature run. Although we are still in the early stages of the season, we had not yet seen the Spaniard struggling in this way following the bike. There is definitely still work to be done if he wants to succeed on a similar course in Rio 2016.
The Prowess of Jo Brownlee
Following two sub-par performances, Jo was back to his old self. He had a near perfect race and his strong start on the run seemingly gave him a psychological edge on his rivals. Gomez doesn’t quite have the speed to match him coming out of transition. Jo, being the executioner that he is, successfully exploited this weakness in Gomez this being able to avoid a sprint showdown with his Spanish rival. Just two weeks following Abu Dhabi, it’s clear that Jo Brownlee’s improvement is psychological rather than physiological.
A diminished Gomez?
Following the race, Gomez admitted to being sick prior to Abu Dhabi and Auckland
Hewitt Already Selected For Rio
With a 3rd place finish, Andrea Hewitt punched his ticket to the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio, nearly 500 days before the event is scheduled to take place. Paula Findlay had previously been selected some 426 days prior to the 2012 Games in London. Auckland was not an Olympic Games qualifying race for most national federations.
Playing The Percentages Games
With 10 important races on the calendar, some of the women seem content on participating in races without necessarily being at the top of their form. This is seemingly quite different when it comes to the men. We have to consider, however, that different athletes have different goals and different reasons for choosing certain races of the calendar over others. Some athlete’s ambitions of amassing enough points in the hopes of qualifying for the Olympic Games end up playing a big role on the outcome of races. France’s Pierre Le Corre’s performances show’s an opportunistic athlete who was willing to take a chance and go for a big result. While some are content in racing without taking risks because they fear failure, others play the percentages and go for the big prize.