This coming weekend the iconic German city of Hamburg is hosting it’s 2015 edition the World Triathlon Series in the iconic downtown race format. As one of the more spectator-friendly courses, we expect the athletes to draw huge energy from the very intimate crowd. The sprint distance events continue to change the game in the world of triathlon, and Hamburg is no exception. With a very short opening distance off the pontoon, the athletes must fight for every inch of water, and hope that the don’t get trounced in the ‘tunnel of darkness’ heading back into the swim exit. The bike course is technical, but not enough that successful attacks have shown to be the norm. Most of the separation will come from the differential of the tight, challenging opening 300m within the blistering 750m swim. As always, a lightening fast 5k foot race will be expected from the day’s medallists. Trimes is excited to provide a preview of the coming men’s event:
Last Year
Last years men’s races showed that the top 15 men basically all run under 15mins, with the top 4 men (+ Mola, Sharp) all running sub 14:30. Smoking. This gives us the impression, that it will take a good ‘speed-based’ fitness to contend in the event. Returning from last year are Vincent Luis, Javier Gomez and Mario Mola. All of whom are category threats in this regard.
Allez les Francais.
*Sans* Le Corre, Hauss and Montoya for this French superstar lineup. Let’s look at the contenders:
Vincent Luis. (@vincentluistri) This man has been proven to be one of the strongest men in the world at the sprint distance, even possibly above the Brownlees and Gomez, and definitely has some good momentum this year. Even Mo Farah tries to steal his bike to learn his secrets. Vincent is an all around world class athletes – no weaknesses, and a serious contender for the win. If you picked him for the podium in your fantasy Trifecta, then…. you’re a safe bet. But if you’re talking cyclocross race.. then pick his “amie”.
Dorian Coninx. (@dorianconinxtri) He is the ‘chosen one’ of the next French generation. The only other males consistently as dominant through the Junior and U23 ranks have been Terenzo (Bozzone) and Alistair Brownlee. An excellent swimmer, but don’t count him out of the 5k footrace. He has years to grow, but can be expected to deliver a short fast run.
Aurélien Raphaël. (@RaphaelAurelien) Coming off a 12th place finish in London, Aurélien has proven he can perform at the sprint distance. A strong contender in the bunch, he can make a difference if there is a break. Think he is good at swimming? You should see his dance skills.. #youtube.
Simon Viain. (Too cool for twitter) This guy knows how to run fast when he needs to, case in point – 4th place in a competitive U23 World Championships last year in Edmonton.
Anthony Pujades. (@AnthonyPUJADES) In typical French fashion, Pujades is again an excellent swimmer and a threat to change the race at any time. He has proven his ability over the sprint distance, with a 7th place at WTS Stockholm last year.
‘The Spanish Are Coming’
With all three top-ranked athletes in the race, Spain is a force to be reckoned with in the absence of the Brownlees. Javier Gomez, Mario Mola, and Fernando Alarza might just be the biggest threat to the French team. In the beginning of the season, no country has had faster combined run splits off the bike than these three men (plus Hernandez). That being said, the triathlon is not necessarily a foot race, but in the condition of a sprint distance, these three are to be feared.
No Brownlees, then who?
This the absence of the Brownlee brothers, a new opportunity to lead the Brits is open. Gordon Benson has shown promise at the U23 level, and is coming off winning the Baku 2015 Euro games, as well as a successful 2014 U23 individual and relay games. Let’s hope the Azerbaijan sun didn’t cook up to much fatigue heading into this weekend’s event. Mark Buckingham adds a strong contingent for the Brits. The other names we expect to contend this weekend are the Aussie-Wizzy duo of Jacob Birtwhistle and Ryan Baillie, with an ever-contending Richard Murray always licking his chops at the sprint distance for a chance to steal a podium spot. While Baillie has proven he can contend with the best in world last year at WTS London, Birtwhistle is a new fleet-footed name to watch, and possibly take down the favorites. Both men are among the world’s best upcoming triathlon talent, and in future years – pose a real threat to the Brownless and the Spanish. #Yeewwwww #Brrrappp
The Darkhorses.
Although not considered primary contenders, it would be silly to discount to the talents of Steffan Justus, Gregor Buchholtz, and Justus Nieschlag. These German boys are strong, and can run. Justus has also been a previous medallist on this course in 2012, while Buchholtz has shown he can medal at the sprint distance with his 3rd place performance in Stockholm last year.
With a top 10 WTS this year under his belt, Tyler Mislawchuk is our Trimes darkhorse favorite. The 20-year old Canadian has suffered a broken rib immediately before the Pan Am Games event race, but is always positioned to contend. Expect his ‘Gong Wizards’ teammate Aaron Royle to be a difference maker on the bike.
The sprint distance – Does it change the game?
Hamburg has traditionally been a sprint distance event since 2012, and a course in which the break-away-attack scenario has been difficult to pull off. Last year, the very fast swim gave the faster technical advantage for athletes like Luis, Gomez, Schoeman, Rapheal to leave the likes of Murray and Mola behind. So this scenario is possible. The perfect situation for a group of 6-8 athletes has been proven to work coming out of this T1, so look for athletes like Gomez, Schoeman, Royle, Rapheal, Varga, Luis to take advantage of this scenario. Those that follow the sport closely know that the sub < 1hr events are a completely different discipline at the world standard, compared to a tough olympic distance courses. Historically it will take a very fast swim, high wattage numbers in the bunch through the streets of Hamburg, and look to the thoroughbreds runners to dominate in the closing stages, pending any incident.
The Mixed Relay.
This year’s Mixed Relay Championships is going to the face-off between the world’s strongest triathlon nations.
Australia. A definite medal favorite. Between Birtwhistle/Baillie/Royle and Jackson/Densham/Gentle/McShane, the aussies have alot of sprint relay firepower to draw from.
France. With Luis/Coninx/Rapheal along with Merle and any of the other strong French women, the French are the best in the world at this short fast discipline. Watch out for them, no matter who the 4th athlete is.
Germany. Although the female contingent of Verstuyft/Deldaele bring less experience, look for Justus/Buchholz/Nieschlag to lead the charge and put Germany in contention.
Great Britain. Without the Brownless, Team GB becomes less of a threat, but Benson/Buckingham in combo with Holland/Stimpson/Coldwell/Stanford could prove dangerous none the less.
United States. Although the headlining trio of Jorgensen/Zaferes/True are dynamic female firepower in a relay, a second possible relay lineup of Tomlin/Kasper/Donner might prove decisive, and then time will tell if that combo along with Kanute/Zaferes/Lagerstrom will be up for the job.
Hungary. With a bronze medal performance at this event last year, the Hungarians are not to be counted out. But with no Akos Vanek, the team of Toth/Faldum and Vanek/Kovacs will their work cut out.
Canada. With Tyler Mislawchuk along side newcomer Alexis LePage, the combo could reinforce the firepower of Pennock/Brault/Sweetland
New Zealand. With the international tatlents of Dodds/Sissons, in combination with Andrea Hewitt and likely either Colbridge or Clark, this team might be one to watch.
Spain. Although Spain has yet to show up their danger in a 4x Mixed Relay, the rising female presence Gomez/Murua/Routier along side *any* of the Spanish Men could prove effective.
South Africa. The combo of Sander/Radford will have to hold up their end of the deal to put Murray/Schoeman/Sullwald in contention.
By Jairus Streight @jairusstreight
